What do you do when economic commentators cannot agree on what is coming next but you still have capital to deploy, portfolios to protect and a family legacy to preserve?

Over the past months, volatility has surged, conviction has plummeted and macro forecasts are all over the map. Goldman Sachs raised the probability of a U.S. recession to 45% up from 20% just weeks ago. J.P. Morgan has gone further citing a 60% chance of recession and revising upwards their inflation forecasts. At the same time, other analysts are actually continuing to forecast U.S. real GDP growth of more than 2.0% in 2025 slowing to 1.5% in 2026. Welcome to the age of forecast dispersion.

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has publicly acknowledged that the inflationary impact of the new tariffs is potentially “more severe than anticipated” even as the Fed navigates the tension between its price stability mandate and its concurrent obligation to promote maximum employment.

Rate cuts remain on the table but so too do rate hikes if inflation surges again. This is a rare and dangerous fork in the road. Stagflation is once again part of the economic conversation. The problem is that, as ever, the practitioners of the Dismal Science offer no shortage of differing projections. The two-handed economist has returned with vigour: “On one hand…” followed swiftly by “…on the other.”

For family offices, this environment presents a distinctive set of challenges. Asset correlations are breaking down. Policy risk has become a portfolio variable. Diversification can no longer be defined only by geography or asset class. It must now include inflation sensitivity, liquidity stress-testing and fiscal vulnerability.

Inaction in this climate is not a strategy. It is a risk in itself. Reassessing exposure to U.S. equities, reducing single-currency dependence, revisiting hedging frameworks and allocating toward counter-cyclical and uncorrelated assets is not simply prudent. It is essential.

Legacy wealth has endured wars, stagflation and systemic financial shocks. Not by timing markets with precision but by recognising early when the rules of the game are shifting and adapting with conviction.

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